A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
